Potential for seasonal flood forecasting in West Africa using climate indexes

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters and expected to become more severe with changing climate population growth. Flood forecasting is one of key components flood risk reduction. The potential for seasonal through indexes has not been studied West Africa so far. This work investigates how indicators can be used predict in advance, several months ahead season, above or below normal discharge Africa. Six global regional were screened their 56 river gauging stations across Forecasting models developed, based on simple multiple linear regressions between annual maximum discharge, evaluated using relative operating characteristics levels scores. western dipole mode index skillful individual prediction. Combining via outperforms both show skills up 4 prior season. Hence, this study opens promising possibilities may help alert disaster reduction agencies entering a period an increased chance flooding trigger adequate mitigation measures.